Small Craft Advisory 634, NWS Anchorage, AK

775 
FZAK51 PAFC 061127
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 961 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 60 NM
NORTHWEST OF SITKINAK LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 984 MB. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 1000 MB BY LATE WED
NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES 
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW HAD
MOVED UNDER THE UPPER CENTER AN BOTH ARE MOVING IN UNISON. THERE IS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN CANADA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EAST BECAUSE IT HANDLE THE WINDS
BETTER ALONG THE COAST AND OVER LAND WHILE EITHER NAM OR GFS WILL
WORK OVER THE WEST DOMAIN. THE STRONG LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF IS
NEAR ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK CITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE STORM IN THE GULF WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND AND THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG
ALONG THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WARNING HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COAST NEAR CORDOVA AND THE EASTERN END OF TURNAGAIN
ARM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. STEADY RAIN WILL FALL MAINLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA, KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIME OVER THE SOUND. OCCASIONAL
RAIN WILL FALL ELSEWHERE.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN FROM THE GULF STORM WILL SPREAD INTO BRISTOL
BAY BY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS TUESDAY, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTION AND SPREAD TO THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
BERING WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WILL MOVE BACK EAST THROUGH THE REST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND NEAR
CORDOVA.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 120.
         STORM WARNING 125 130 138 140.
         GALE WARNING 127 128 129 141 150 155 160 165 170 171
         172 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** SEP 11