Small Craft Advisory 589, NWS Anchorage, AK

170 
FZAK52 PAFC 212350
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR EMMONAK
MONDAY MORNING. A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO 45 NM WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 987 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING
TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION.  A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN MORNING AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS MON AND TUE. IN THE WEST THE MODELS INDICATING A WEAK
LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN BACK
INTO THE NO. PAC.  A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SUN
MORNING MOVES ONSHORE MON MORNING NEAR HOOPER BAY...HOWEVER UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES BRING SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE CHUKCHI INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WITH IT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG NORTH GULF
COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS WELL.  GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BERING REGION. LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SUN WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS ON MON. LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING SUN MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. SOME CLEAR SKIES SUN NIGHT BUT INCREASE OF CLOUDS FROM
WEST ON MON. TEMPS COOLING ON MON.

BERING...LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL BERING SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SUN...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED FOG. MODELS
INDICATING CLOUD OVER MOST OF AL CHAIN AND AK PEN WITH SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAIN FEATURE IS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHERN BERING.  GFS PLACES THIS FEATURE OVER THE SEWARD
PEN. MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FIRST
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST ON MON BUT
SECOND FRONT MOVES IN ON WED. COOLER IN WEST ON MON AND TUE BUT
WARMING ON WED. HIGHER PRESSURE FORMS OVER EASTERN HALF OF STATE ON
TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP AUG 11