Small Craft Advisory 576, NWS Anchorage, AK

085 
FZAK51 PAFC 181110
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON
FRI. A 984 MB LOW WILL FROM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING E
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 181532 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE 
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THU. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF ON FRI. A 984 MB LOW WILL FROM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRI 
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING 
E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES 
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NE WIND 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
725 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

989 
FZAK51 PAFC 182358
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW WILL FORM 80 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK THU NIGHT AND MOVE TO 30
NM SOUTH OF SELDOVIA FRI NIGHT AT 980 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE OVER COOK INLET ON SAT.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT DURING THE EVENING ALONG
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 8 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT... INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME VERY DYNAMIC FEATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE. STABILITY INDICES ON THE 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING WERE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 56...LIFTED
INDEX OF -4.9...AND CAPE OF 743 J/KG. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ON THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. THE SHORT-WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SWING NORTHEASTWARD SO EXPECT SOUTHERN END
OF SHOWERS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING
AS ADDITIONAL VORT-MAXES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

THERE ARE ALSO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL JUST UPSTREAM

WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST. THIS RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF ASIA INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SUPPORTED BY A 100 TO 130 KT SUBTROPICAL JET.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE SOUTH OF IT HEADED FOR THE BERING
SEA. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW JUST AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT-WAVE TODAY. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR SYSTEM OVER
THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING BERING SEA SYSTEM. EACH MODEL SHOWS SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH ITSELF...BUT THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AMONG ALL THE
SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NAM SOLUTION. THIS PROVIDES A NICE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN A LOT OF
DETAILS WILL TEND TO TAKE MORE OF A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH...ESPECIALLY
FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...NOT COMPLETELY EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VORT-MAXES SLIDING ALONG THE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS WHICH WILL INCREASINGLY
BE FOUND FARTHER NORTH OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY WAY OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING BERING SEA SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND THERE WILL BE A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE INTENSIFIES ALONG NORTH GULF COASTAL ZONE
AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS OFTEN PRODUCES DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IN THIS
SITUATION WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT EXPECT
EVERYWHERE TO SEE SOME RAIN. ALSO...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE
POINT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SHIFT TO A MORE N-S ORIENTATION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE E-W GAP WINDS
SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM. THE ENTIRE LOW COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF BY SATURDAY SO COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. MEANWHILE
A WARM FRONT WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS INTO BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ALONG THE COAST. HEAVIER
RAIN AND A LITTLE WIND WILL ARRIVE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL INITIALLY MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THANKS TO UPPER
JET OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...IT WILL COME TO A SCREECHING HALT NEAR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW FORMS AND
PULLS IT NORTHWARD WHILE JET CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL THEN HELP PULL THIS LOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR
ALOFT...SO FOG CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
INDICATE A SHARP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND
TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA. CONSISTENCY IN THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORT-WAVE ARE NOT GREAT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11