Small Craft Advisory 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

024 
FZAK51 PAFC 071556 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
755 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

UPDATE TO ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
755 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

928 
FZAK51 PAFC 072326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS TONIGHT. WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF MONDAY. A SECONDARY WEATHER FRONT
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY.
$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 15
KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT...GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT SAT AUG 7 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF MEKORYUK WILL BE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WITH A 100 KT ADJACENT JET. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP TO PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MEKORYUK AND MOST OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS AT UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FALLING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS THIS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING THROUGH BRISTOL
BAY AND TOWARDS KING SALMON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THIS SURFACE LOW
AND FRONT TODAY. A STRONG RIDGE IS ALSO CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT IN THE
EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BUT ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY...EVEN WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. THE GREATEST DISCREPENCY IS IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA
BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION AND IS
ALSO PICKING UP ON A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER ANCHORAGE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION TODAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKAN RANGE...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT WILL
HELP TO GENERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ONLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND KENAI PENINSULA. OVERALL IT
WIL BE WET IN KODIAK BY MID MORNING AND IN ANCHORAGE BY THE EVENING.
STEADY RAIN WILL REACH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA INCREASE.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
IN THESE REGIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST WEST OF MEKORYUK IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS THIS LOW TRACKS WESTWARD. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RAIN SHOULD REMAIN STEADY EVEN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT PARTIAL CLEARNING IN THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...A FRONT IS BRINGING MOSTLY STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS BY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTH BERING BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DOMINATE
ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MORE STRONGLY INDICATE THAT A RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND BY NEXT THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD
BRING IN DRIER WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 145
MARINE...GALE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN AUG 11