Small Craft Advisory 544, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THREE DAYS
WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE IN THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA TOMORROW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP TODAY. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
MOVED FROM THE GULF TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THE MAIN LOW WILL RESIDE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AGAIN. HOWEVER THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR MORE
RAIN.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW NEAR NORTON SOUND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE AND PUSHING INTO THE KODIAK, COOK INLET, AND
SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS.
AS IS COMMON IN SUCH SITUATIONS THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST WHICH IS THE CAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM
AND THE ALONG THE COPPER RIVER...AS WELL AS THE OTHER TYPICALLY WINDY
AREAS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STEADY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND RAIN SHOWERS
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE FLOOD ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES AS THE
YENTNA RIVER REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
FLOOD TONIGHT AS MORE RAIN STARTED TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INDICATION
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE STATE MAY CHANGE AND IMPROVE A BIT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS TENTATIVE AT BEST.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL THAT TIME...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP MAINLAND ALASKA IN AN OVERALL CLOUDY AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALE 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11