Small Craft Advisory 491, NWS Anchorage, AK

267 
FZAK51 PAFC 181124
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH 
OF CAPE SUCKLING BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 100 NM SOUTH OF 
YAKUTAT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SW OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W WIND 25 KT SW OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 7 FT S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT ALONG THE COAST N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT ALONG THE COAST N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO W 15 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

487 
FZAK51 PAFC 182310
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N AND E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. S AND W OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N AND E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. S AND W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
25 KT DEVELOPING NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

JAM

787 
FZAK51 PAFC 191134
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO CAPE SPENCER BY LATE TONIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE WED MORNING. A 1008 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO
230 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 140 NM SOUTH
OF SITKA LATE TONIGHT AT 1003 MB AND THEN MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WED MORNING. A 1008 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK EARLY WED MORNING WILL MOVE
TO KODIAK CITY BY LATE WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 
WIND LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY NOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.
GOING WITH THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER DETAIL. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
MID TERM...WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC OUT EAST AS IT IS MOVING
THINGS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM. CONSISTENCY IS STILL POOR IN THE
LONG RANGE SO WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE STATE IS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. IT REMAINS ON ITS
SLOW TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL MAKE IT OVER THE GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ALSO PUSH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT. TO THE WEST RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS OUT OF A NORTH PACIFIC HIGH. BUT BY TUESDAY MORNING THIS
RIDGE WILL BE GONE AND A NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
FROM THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOR THE EAST...AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WE WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEYS AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

.FOR THE WEST...WITH THE CONTINUED PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE A CONSTANT FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT WILL BRING FOG TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW OVER THE
STATE ZONAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK KEEPING OUR WEATHER PATTERN
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK JUL 11