Small Craft Advisory 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

611 
FZAK52 PAFC 162301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 MB LOW 210 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR KIPNUK SUN
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUN NIGHT. A 1000 MB
LOW 390 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST
OF AMCHITKA MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
LONG TERM BUT SKILL BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS ONLY AVERAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD CORE LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH MON MORNING.  A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS BY EARLY SUN AND THEN
MERGE WITH THE SEWARD PENINSULA LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 155W.

.AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BENEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL PERSIST INTO SUN AND
THEN MERGE WITH THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL MOVE EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS STILL COVERING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND YUKON
TERRITORIES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL...CLOUDS AND STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SAT
AS COLDER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY.

.BERING AND ALEUTIANS...A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BY SUN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH JUL 11