Small Craft Advisory 477, NWS Anchorage, AK

544 
FZAK52 PAFC 121107
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 125 NM NORTH OF GAMBELL ON WED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AND WED.
$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SW 25 KT IN THE MORNING EAST OF UNALASKA
ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
110 PM AKDT MON JUL 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW OFF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THIS MORNING IS TRACKING RAPIDLY TOWARD
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA DENOTES THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS A BONAFIDE WARM FRONT WITH NOTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA (ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING). THE WARM FRONT IS TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES INTO COOK INLET. A WELL DEFINED
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE
QUITE BENIGN WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WHICH SETS UP
ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. WILL USE THE NAM MODEL TO REFINE THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A TURNAGAIN ARM WIND...BUT WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW DO NOT EXPECT ANY DOWNSLOPE DRYING. IN FACT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL UPPER WAVE EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. EVEN THEN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...SO THREAT OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING IS WEAK SO DON'T EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN VISIBLE EACH DAY. AT THE
SURFACE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE GULF THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN BERING LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONE FEATURE OF NOTE
IS AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WITH STRONGER WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH WILL SINK BACK SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY AND
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE BERING STRAIT MID WEEK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
MAINLAND AND RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STORM TRACK FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT ROUGHLY EXPECT ANOTHER STORM TO MOVE INTO THE BERING
LATE IN THE WEEK AND REACH THE MAINLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THE COUPLE
DAYS PRIOR TO THAT SHOULD BE FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 11