Small Craft Advisory 471, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. IN THE WEST
USING THE GFS FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. OUT EAST WE ARE USING A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM WHILE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NAM FOR WINDS.
FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WE ARE MOVING TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE REGION ARE TWO
LOWS. THE FIRST BEING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NORTH BERING SEA. THIS LOW IS BRINGING CONSTANT MOISTURE TO
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE OTHER LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE THE
PROMINENT WEATHER PRODUCERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE
REGION. CURRENTLY OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THERE IS WEAK FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. REMNANTS OF A FRONT STRETCH ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOR THE EAST...THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE DETERIORATING FRONT THAT
RESTS OVER IT. OVERALL FLOW FOR THE EAST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER SUNDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.FOR THE WEST...TROUGHS AND FRONTS FROM BOTH OF THE LOWS WILL KEEP
THE ALEUTIANS IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING IS BRINGING
MOISTURE TO THE WEST COAST...THIS IS CAUSING FOG AND RAIN ALL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTH. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE JET AND
MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DK JUL 11