Small Craft Advisory 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

187 
FZAK52 PAFC 032306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 250 NM WEST
OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE SUN NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING N 15 KT WEST OF COLD BAY
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE MENDENHALL...N WIND 20 KT...BECOMING SW
15 KT TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT IN THE EVENING EAST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...BECOMING NW 35 KT WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER ALASKA IS CHARACTERIZED BY THREE CLOSED
500MB LOWS. THE FIRST A LARGE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
TO NORTHWEST ALASKA FILLING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...THE SECOND BEING A
WEAKER SYSTEM ENCOMPASSING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE THIRD COMPACT
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE ALASKAN PENINSULA ABOUT TO MERGE WITH THE GULF
LOW. RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EAST
CENTRAL INTERIOR. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SYSTEMS EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AN AREA
FROM THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS HEADED
TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE OUTLIERS BEING GEM
AND UKMET LAGGING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BEHIND THE
OTHERS. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY OVER THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE BERING BUT A LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM WILL
BE AFFECTING THE BERING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA WILL ASSIMILATE INTO THE
BROADER GULF OF ALASKA LOW. MEANWHILE...CONSENSUS SAYS A WEAKER UPPER
SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHWEST CANADA INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA AND
EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER BERING SEA CIRCULATION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
FIRST EASTERLY WAVE PASSES BY BRINGING A QUIET PERIOD TO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND AREAS EAST. THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE PUSHES INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY BY MIDDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CLEAR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INLAND EACH DAY THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE AREA HELP ENHANCE UPWARD
MOTION. MEANWHILE...AS THE EASTERLY WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
ALASKAN PENINSULA STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY FOR THE EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY AREA. MORE SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREA ON MONDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE BERING IS DOMINATED BY LOW STRATUS AS
MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A
RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA VULNERABLE TO A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
WEAK WAVES IN THE GENERAL CIRCULATION. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN. THE NEXT MORE POTENT WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL.
QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEEP UPPER LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING
BY LATE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH RAIN FOR
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. A BROAD TROUGH LOOKS TO SETUP OVER MOST OF THE
BERING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JUL 11