Small Craft Advisory 449, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312339 RRA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF ST PAUL WILL WEAKEN TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 450 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 984 MB...THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES...
DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.  SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT...WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT DURING THE EVENING. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WEATHER PATTERN CURRENTLY BEING DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING
SEA. THE 975 MB LOW IS NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE HAS RETREATED NORTH NEAR THE YUKON
RIVER VALLEY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...VERY FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
TODAY. THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED BETTER EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS
DISPLAYING SLIGHTLY BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LOW STILL DEEPENING OUT WEST AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THAT TRIPLE POINT FEATURE...IT COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE EXPECTED
WINDS OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME WE
BELIEVE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST
ANCHORAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE SAME WINDS ARE ALREADY CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT
BELIEVE THAT THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING THROUGH MID WEEK.

FURTHER WEST...WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS TODAY EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND SENDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A SIMILAR
SETUP FROM TODAYS WEATHER. THIS LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STAYS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 170 172 179 180 185 411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

AB MAY 11