Small Craft Advisory 436, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

CORRECTED MARINE HAZARDS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FORECAST IS PANNING OUT WELL THIS MORNING WITH NEAR STORM FORCE
WINDS OUT WEST AND RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS MID-PATTERN SHIFT AS A STRONG LOW OUT WEST REACHES ITS
MAXIMUM STRENGTH TODAY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEADS NORTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE OCCLUDED LOW IN THE CENTRAL
BERING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
UPSTREAM ALONG THE CANADA/ALASKA BORDER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ALL MAJOR
FEATURES. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE BESIDES THE LARGE LOW OUT WEST
IS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOVE TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAD SOME TIMING ISSUES...BUT THOSE SEEM TO BE RESOLVED NOW WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT RAIN
BECAME SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND SO CLOUDS AND THE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IMPACTING MOST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS
TURNING THE CORNER AROUND 50N 145W AND WILL HEAD STRAIGHT FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
INTERIOR. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SO THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL NOT
SEE THE STEADY RAIN THAT IT DID EARLY THIS MORNING.

THAT WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL USHER IN DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
SO MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST...
LIKEWISE...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND BRISTOL BAY SEEING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THIS CURRENT SHORTWAVE. THE LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING SEA LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN MOVING INLAND SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND OPEN UP THE MOISTURE TO
FLOW FREELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WIDESPREAD RAINY AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY
THIS MORNING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
ST MATTHEW ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WAY OUT WEST
BEHIND THIS LARGE LOW ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE
BERING AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11