Small Craft Advisory 431, NWS Anchorage, AK

614 
FZAK52 PAFC 241112
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1011 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 982 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO 967 MB BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS IT
MOVES TO 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR KISKA
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 971 MB.

$$

PKZ150-250300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-250300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-250300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-250300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-250300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-250300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-250300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATUDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO TO 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-250300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...WINDS INCREASING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
  

$$

PKZ175-250300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-250300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-250300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-250300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN INTERIOR IS STILL THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO NOSE
ACROSS THE ALASKA BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. SEVERAL
EASTERLY WAVES CONTINUE TO CAUSE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...THE CURRENT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE NEAR
THE TANANA RIVER VALLEY. THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE IS ORGANIZING ITSELF
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH ALONG THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING.
ALL MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WHILE THE PATH OF THE LOW IS VERY
SIMILAR...THE GFS IS 10 MB STRONGER THAN ALL OTHER OPTIONS. WE WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT. LIKEWISE IN THE EAST...THE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD LEAD TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE
THE GFS SPREAD VERY LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. LEANING
TOWARD THE WET NAM AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE JUST ADVERTISING A
CHANCE FOR THE INTERIOR AND LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MANY CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THESE AREAS TODAY. LOTS OF QUESTIONS THEN
COME UP REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
AIRMASS WILL WARM FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE INCREASING
THE MIDLEVEL LAPS RATES. ASSUMING SKIES START OUT MOSTLY
CLEAR...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SURFACE HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN OVER TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE STRAY SHOWER OVER THE
CHUGACH RANGE.

THE PANHANDLE SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SPREADING RAIN THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL...IT IS STILL INDICATING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
REMAINS NORTH IN THE SAME AREAS...FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUING.

.SOUTHWEST...MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WHILE ANOTHER UNDERCUTS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
COAST CONTINUES TO SEE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE THE INTERIOR IS AT
LEAST STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...INCREASES EACH DAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS JUST
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

FURTHER WEST...A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WE WILL BE BUMPING WINDS UP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECAUSE THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW. IT REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
CROSSES THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA...WHERE IT
WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11