Small Craft Advisory 429, NWS Anchorage, AK

019 
FZAK51 PAFC 231146
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND MORNINGS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
  
$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT AND SEAS 4 FT AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND MORNINGS.
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. SEVERAL STACKED LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE
CYCLONIC FLOW INCLUDING ONE NEAR THE PANHANDLE...A SECOND OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND A THIRD SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A
FOURTH CAN BE SEEN EVEN FURTHER WEST NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
WEAK RIDGING EXISTS BETWEEN THESE LOWS AS THEY MEANDER ABOUT AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFICULT TO DISCERN MANY SURFACE FEATURES BESIDES
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS AGAIN ARE INITIALIZING WELL AND ARE
CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OUT WEST BETWEEN 60 AND 84 HOURS AS THE LOW NEAR
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA GETS SOME JET SUPPORT AND DEVELOPS INTO A 975
MB LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF. STILL CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH WITH THIS SOLUTION AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY POOR. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS STILL MUCH FURTHER EAST THEN ALL THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND 60
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL BRIEFLY BROKE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MULTIPLE LOWS
IN THE REGION YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WAS SQUEEZED AND DISSIPATED. RADARS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CAUSING THIS RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THERMAL
TROUGH TO BUILD AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THIS SEASON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...LEADING TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN OUR DOMAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND NICELY...REACHING 70S IN MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.

OF NOTE IS A WAVE THAT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THAT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD RAIN
INLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY IF THE NAM IS
CORRECT. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TAKING
IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH ONLY
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER GFS SOLUTION...WITH RESERVATION.

.SOUTHWEST...THE COOL AND DAMP SOUTHWEST SUMMER CONTINUES WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RIDGING HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN COOL AND DAMP MORNINGS WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER WEST...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BERING SEA.
THE ONLY CHANGE ON THE HORIZON IS THE DEVELOPING 975 MB LOW EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE LARGE LOW THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11