Small Craft Advisory 422, NWS Anchorage, AK

374 
FZAK51 PAFC 181104
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FOR THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
WE ARE USING THE NAM FOR BETTER HANDLING OF TERRAIN FEATURES. FOR THE
LONG TERM WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN EC/HPC BLEND. THE GFS WAS THE
OUTLIER YESTERDAY WITH INCONSISTENT LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GULF...TODAY IT IS STARTING TO GET BACK ON TRACK WITH THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WEAK FLOW RESIDES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE STATE FROM
CANADA SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS INCREASED CLEARING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR WHICH WILL ALLOW A
STRONG THERMAL TROUGH TO SETUP AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST. IT IS
FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE THAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE
FEATURE FOR WEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING IS LEADING TO EARLY BUILDING
OF CUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNINGS ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 500 MB. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT APPEARS TO NOT BE ENOUGH TO SQUASH THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH MEANS THAT CONVECTION THAT
FIRES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE TALKEETNAS AND THE
CHUGACH RANGE...WILL DRIFT TOWARD PALMER AND ANCHORAGE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH IF AN ISOLATED STRIKE OCCURS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST ANCHORAGE UP TO EAGLE
RIVER. PALMER AND WASILLA HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TO SEE
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND
PROXIMITY TO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING THANKS TO A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMING UP LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THE CHANGE WILL INVOLVE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INLAND AS
AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST WHILE
GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER PREVAILS FURTHER INLAND. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS IN STORE SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE. CONDITIONS STAY
RELATIVELY COOL AND DAMP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
FILL NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG AND STRATUS...FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE BERING
SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DK/AB JUN 11