Small Craft Advisory 409, NWS Anchorage, AK

790 
FZAK52 PAFC 121139
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL TRACK SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN NIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW 75 NM
SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND MON NIGHT AT 1010 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.   

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE ALASKA
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE DOMINANT FEATURE A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS FROM KODIAK AND THE WESTERN GULF TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS A VERY
WEAK AND DIRTY RIDGE...WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW
THE SAME SOLUTION. THERE ARE SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES THOUGH.
NAM IS NOT DEPICTING ANY QPF WHERE RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA...SO WILL MAKE USE OF OTHER MODELS AS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER AS USUAL NAM IS VERIFYING BETTER WITH WINDS. SOME LARGER
SCALE DIFFERENCES DO DEVELOP IN THE MODELS WITH SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NAM IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER...SO WILL
GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE CLOSER TOGETHER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THERMAL TROUGH STAYS OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...DIRECTIONS WILL
SHIFT AND EXPECT THERE MIGHT BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A SMALL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS. WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THOUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS ALASKA PENINSULA LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GULF
SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...ENSURING THAT CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL SINK DOWN INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SUNDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE CURRENT LOW EXITS
AND NEW ONE DROPS DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL OVER THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE EASTERN BERING AND A PACIFIC SYSTEM SPREADING RAIN AND SOME WIND
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
BERING MONDAY WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE CURRENT
ALASKA PENINSULA LOW AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THANKS TO A BUILDING
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW. IT WILL LIKELY CROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUCTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THIS FEATURE
EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A DAY
BREAK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BUT THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE THE EXTENT
OF IT AS PACIFIC LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING LATE IN THE WEEK SPREADING MOISTURE WAY OUT AHEAD OF IT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 11