Small Craft Advisory 390, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
215 PM AKDT FRI JUNE 3 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS NOW POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT NEAR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS NOW
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS SEA HEIGHTS RISE OVER
20 FT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS ENERGY IS RAPIDLY BEING
DISPERSED AS THE LOW FILLS IN THE BERING SEA. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL BRING MUCH OF OUR DOMAIN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND WIND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. GUSTS OVER 45
MPH ARE COMMON ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND NOW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS ANCHORAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL FURTHER BE ENHANCED
BRINGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN TO SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE. AS
EXPECTED...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY LIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SE TO
NW ORIENTED RAIN BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION. NO FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT AS THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS LONG BEEN
PINCHED OFF...BUT WORTH NOTING THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE LITTLE TO
NO RAIN WHILE OTHER AREAS COULD SEE .1 TO .25 INCH. LIKEWISE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...THERE ARE A FEW AREAS THAT ARE
RECEIVING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN THANKS TO A FEW HEAVY CONVECTIVE
BANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONDAY RETURNING
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL DRIVE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BUT UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS LOWS THIS PAST WEEK THIS LOW WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE PENINSULA.

IT APPEARS LATER IN THE WEEK...A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AGAIN BRINGING BACK THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAY 11