Small Craft Advisory 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

559 
FZAK51 PAFC 272301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281500-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SUN. A 997 MB LOW 430 NM SOUTH OF
COLD BAY FRI NIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB 540 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND SAT NIGHT THEN TURN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUN.

$$

PKZ120-281500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-281500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-281500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-281500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-281500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-281500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-281500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-281500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-281500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNNY AND WARM. THIS SAME EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY HAD KEPT KODIAK ISLAND...THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH IS
MOVING A STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND EC MODELS. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STATIONARY LOW SOUTH OF THE WILL DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS DUE TO
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER
BRISTOL BAY HOLD THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AT
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAY 11