Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Anchorage, AK

679 
FZAK51 PAFC 242344
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND TUE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. NE WIND 10 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 10
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON MAY 23 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A STATIONARY HIGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS ALSO MOVING EAST. SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
HAVE MOVED AREAS OF RAIN FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAD BROUGHT RAIN AND GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA. AN OLD STATIONARY WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAD BROUGHT MORE RAIN TO KODIAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM, THROUGH THE KNIK VALLEY AND THROUGH PARTS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
DRY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FIRE DANGER FOR THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO KODIAK ISLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
FROM THE EAST AS THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL REGION IS SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA...
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE EAST TO LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD IN
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. RAIN
WILL BECOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BY TAKING THE
STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY.
THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTION BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 160 180 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

NM MAY 11