Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

475 
FZAK51 PAFC 141245
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 10 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER 
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 45 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT 
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST THU JAN 13 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAS AFFECTED THE STATE FOR THE PAST
WEEK IS DRIFTING NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIBERIAN ARCTIC
COAST...BUT ITS PRESENCE IS STILL BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ARE
CONTINUING TO ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS STILL LINGERS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE...SO ANY WINDS THAT ARE REACHING THE SURFACE ARE ALSO
MIXING DOWN THIS WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
MAT-SU VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE MAT
VALLEY BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. A
NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS SPAWNED BY A
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS BRINGING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND...WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A 115 KT JET STREAK IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL BRING WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVER ALASKA IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH MOVES
AWAY FROM THE STATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP A STATIONARY
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE MODELS VARY
ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW. OUT WEST...THE MODELS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO THE EAST...THOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE
REGION WITH MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEING OBSERVED FROM
THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVES ARE POISED TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
REGION.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE FROM AN OPEN TROUGH TO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA DURING
THE WEEKEND. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND LOCAL CHANNELED
WINDS CONTINUING TO BE A NUISANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO
PREVAIL OVER THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL SECTIONS WITH THE ONLY CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...THE CRITICAL WEATHER WILL BE
THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND RACES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR WARNING LEVELS ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...IN PARTICULAR TOKSOOK BAY WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN
FUNNELS THE WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE BENIGN OVER THE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND SLOWLY GETS PINCHED OFF. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS UPPER FEATURE DRIFT BACK TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
ALLOWING THE NEXT LARGE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND
START IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...111 155.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...171.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...126 127 128 130 132 138 140 150 175 176 185
                        351 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 126 127 128 130 140 141
                                        160 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS/AB JAN 11