Small Craft Advisory 317, NWS Anchorage, AK

619 
FZAK52 PAFC 051206
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 120 NM NORTH OF ADAK FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE ARE TWO CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ONE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AS WELL AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
HAVE HANDLED THE SYSTEM THAT IS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
PARTICULARLY WELL THIS MORNING...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST
WITH THE DETAILS SO IT WAS USED FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE NAM WAS ALSO USED FOR ANY CHANGES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...SO
A BLEND TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS
EXPECTED...AND EVEN SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AROUND ANCHORAGE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...WHILE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATER TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE SHOWERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WHILE THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS OVER THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE BERING SEA. IF A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA
NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS INDICATE...QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SCHRECK