Small Craft Advisory 306, NWS Anchorage, AK

616 
FZAK51 PAFC 012258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 135 NM
SOUTH OF SITKA AND WEAKEN TO 1005 MB MON AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF EARLY MON EVENING AND DISSIPATE EARLY
TUE. 

$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT LATE IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1
FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ACCEPTABLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE
SOLUTION TO BRING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND THEN
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY IS NOW ACCEPTED BY ALL THE MAJOR MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OVER THE STATE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALCAN BORDER WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RESIDING OVER WEST-INTERIOR ALASKA THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
BRISTOL BAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS BUILT INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF ATTU.
ALSO ALOFT IS A SHORT WAVE HEADING UP COOK INLET. THIS IS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONT MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WHICH IS BRING SOME STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY...THOUGH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT IS
PROGRESSING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AHEAD OF IT AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SO THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM THIS SYSTEM.
RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW WILL ALSO COVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE
WEATHER FRONT IN THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL ACCURACY AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
HAMPER THE LONG TERM FORECASTS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE STORM TRACK
WILL SET UP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN LAND
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTING THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175. STORM 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 11