Small Craft Advisory 296, NWS Anchorage, AK

927 
FZAK52 PAFC 261104
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK WILL DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT
987 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 140 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT 978 MB
WED MORNING...THEN TRACK TO AROUND 120 NM EAST OF ATKA AT 986 MB
EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BERING SIDE...SE 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 9 FT.

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

088 
FZAK52 PAFC 262256
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271500-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 165 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW 
WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 990 MB AS IT MOVES TO 120 NM WEST OF DUTCH 
HARBOR THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT BERING
SIDE. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-271500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1235 PM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN DOMINATES
THE UPPER LEVELS...SO NO MAJOR STORMS TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION IS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. IT IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE PACIFIC. WEAK WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW ARE ROTATING
NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND PRODUCING
SHOWERS. THE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS IS AROUND TWO SURFACE LOWS...
ONE JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ANOTHER OVER BRISTOL BAY.
ARCTIC AIR IS FEEDING IN BEHIND THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WITH
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW AS YOU HEAD SOUTH OF KING SALMON
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
OF LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD
WHILE GFS HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. GFS HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS...SO WILL SIDE WITH
THE GFS TRACK. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LOOK RELATIVELY SIMILAR
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. MARGINALLY
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH CREATING
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY A VERY WEAK RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SURFACE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO OFF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL SIT AND DISSIPATE
ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH WON'T SEE COLDER AIR UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT BY WHICH POINT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS ONE LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH ALONG A BEND IN THE UPPER JET. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE
TUESDAY AND THEN STALL AND WEAKEN NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY THURSDAY AS
UPPER JET PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FEED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE. THE
LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST MAY SEE SOME AFFECTS FROM
THIS ALEUTIAN SYSTEM...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL BE
PROTECTED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 11