Small Craft Advisory 293, NWS Anchorage, AK

260 
FZAK51 PAFC 251202
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BERING SEA WITH RIDGING OVER THE
GULF.

$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 25 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT SUN APR 24 2011

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE BERING
SEA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS OWN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MAINLAND. THE BARRIER BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DECAYING FRONT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DOWN TO KODIAK ISLAND...COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS BRINGING
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST...A POTENT
BAROCLINIC LOW IS RAPIDLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...VERY STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUTTING UP AGAINST THE COAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE KEEPS THE INTERIOR DRY. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPEARS
TO BE WAITING FOR THE LOW IN THE BERING TO FINALLY DROP DOWN AND
DISPLACE IT. MEANWHILE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH RAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BRING THE INTERIOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...BREEZY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN AS THE AKPEN LOW VERY SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INVADE THE AREA.

.ALEUTIANS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL PROLONG THE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY TRANSITIONS
INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED THE ICE EDGE BEYOND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 20S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FURTHER WEST...AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
LOW WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY BRING A WARM FRONT
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
.PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181
.MARINE...GALES 155 165
.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 11