Small Craft Advisory 280, NWS Anchorage, AK

836 
FZAK51 PAFC 211203
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF 
OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN TO THE 
NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH THE MOVEMENT THE LOW COMPLEX SOUTH
OF THE AK PEN. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH TOOK A SIGNIFICANT JUMP TO THE NORTH WITH LOW CENTER ON
THE 12Z RUN. OVERALL WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE NAM FOR MESOSCALE
WIND FORECASTS (EXCELLENT HANDLING OF WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL) IN THE FIRST 48 HRS OR SO...THEN WILL BLEND CURRENT
GRIDS WITH THE GFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 84 HRS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA AS WELL AS ANOTHER LOW
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THERE IS A LOW NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE
IS KEEPING ITS HOLD OVER MOST OF THE BERING. THE MAIN LOW AT THE
SURFACE IS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALSO A WEAK LOW
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AS WELL. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIES
OVER SIBERIA EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE NORTH GULF JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER FAIRBANKS AND ANCHORAGE
SHOWED A MOISTENING IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH GULF. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS (RAIN COASTS) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE GULF
OF ALASKA. ALSO WILL SEE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL
GENERATE BRISK AND GUSTY GAP FLOWS AND BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST...
A BROAD BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER BRISTOL BAY...WHICH BROUGHT
DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTS...HAS LIFTED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER EPISODE TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GUSTS AS NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER BRISTOL BAY
THU.

ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING SEA...THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND AK PEN THU AND FRI WILL PRODUCE GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GREATEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 165 170 172 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 11