Small Craft Advisory 270, NWS Anchorage, AK

168 
FZAK51 PAFC 181125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1018 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR KENAI AT 1012
MB BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 18 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AND THEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES BEGIN TO EMERGE.

FOR THE EXTENDED THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA FROM THE NORTH...WHILST THE GFS IS BRINGING IN SOME FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE GFS WAS CLOSER TO
CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND THUS WAS PREFERRED...BUT WITH ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
REX BLOCK PATTERN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH A LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A HIGH
OVER EXTREME EASTERN SIBERIA. THE EASTERN LOBE OF THE HIGH EXTENDS
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE EASTERN LOBE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR A DRY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND SPIN IN PLACE
AS VARIOUS WEAK LOWS ROTATE AROUND IT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A FAIRLY
STABLE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE BLOCK DIFFERENTLY AS MENTIONED
ABOVE SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 170 171 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG APR 11