Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

757 
FZAK52 PAFC 111217
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR ATTU WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF ATKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 989 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.   

$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF 176W. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY SAINT PAUL ISLAND
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT GEORGE
ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS NOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST (OF WHAT
WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT-WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS) DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
YUKON AND NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALASKA. ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SHORT-WAVE AND LEAD TO A CHANGE IN WEATHER ACROSS ALASKA.
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
GULF WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG UNDERNEATH SOME VERY
STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS. MOST OF ANCHORAGE CLEARED OUT
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO RE-FORM AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL THE COLDER AIR
AND WINDS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.

THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE HAS PUSHED THE SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE
BERING SEA WESTWARD. IT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ON UP
TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN THE AREA RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER JET. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING
TOWARD CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT
WILL STILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM ATKA TO DUTCH
HARBOR AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ADAK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW IS
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG WESTERLY
JET AND ARCTIC AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD BUT WILL SOON BEGIN TO CURVE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOLID STORM FORCE WINDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK FROM THE VICINITY OF ADAK AND UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF SYSTEMS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. PLAN TO STICK WITH THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING
BEST AS OF LATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...UPPER SHORT-WAVE OVER THE YUKON WILL CROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS PRESSURE RISES OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND
FALL OVER THE GULF. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK UP WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
FOR CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND VALDEZ/THOMPSON
PASS. ANY REMAINING FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS ARRIVE.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER. PLAN TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE VALDEZ ZONE
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON WARNING LEVEL WIND POTENTIAL IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. A MUCH
STRONGER SHORT-WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WON'T MUCH ADDITIONAL COLD ADVECTION WITH THAT
ONE...SO IMPACT ON WINDS LIKELY WON'T BE THAT SIGNIFICANT. IN
ADDITION TO ALL THE WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL PASS MOSTLY TO
THE EAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WON'T BE NEARLY AS TIGHT AS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THE SHORT-WAVE ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SO MAY SEE SOME STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND AT
THAT POINT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS PUSHING THE STORM TRACK OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THERE WILL BE TWO MORE LOWS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA...ONE POWERFUL STORM PASSING BY TONIGHT AND THEN A
WEAKER STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POOR MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH HANDLING OF ENERGY
MOVING UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND/GULF
OVER TO THE BERING SEA. CHANCES ARE THOUGH THAT MOSTLY DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...127 170 172 175.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 126 128 130 132 138 140 150 155
                        171 176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11