Small Craft Advisory 268, NWS Anchorage, AK

459 
FZAK52 PAFC 161112
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1011 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 998 MB LOW 560 NM 
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ATKA BY LATE SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT TOWARDS MORNING. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...
NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JAM APR 11

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA IS BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA
WHILE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TRACKS WESTWARD
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
NOTABLE FEATURE THIS MORNING IS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A SURFACE LOW TO SOUTH...WHICH ARE PRODUCING AREAS
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH LOWS OUT WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO IT IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...FOR THE MOST PART THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTWARD PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THESE WILL BOTH ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING
THE PEAK HEATING TIMES OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM ANCHORAGE AND MCGRATH SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF UNSTABLE BUT DRY
CONDITIONS. COMBINATION OF VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVES
COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND THEN EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH TO THE TALKEETNA/CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WITH
AS A SOMEWHAT STRONG SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...SO WHAT
SHOWERS DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY
WON'T MAKE IT VERY FAR. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE SECOND
SHORT-WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON
CONVECTION AND PRODUCE SUNNY DAYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING LOW AT THE SURFACE.
THUS...THE BULK OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THE
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL RETREAT A BIT AS TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA RETROGRADES WESTWARD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH LOWS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...BUT THAT IS WHERE THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS
BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 11