Small Craft Advisory 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

432 
FZAK51 PAFC 142302
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH 
SAT WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

.FRI...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. E WIND 15
KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 AM AKDT THU APR 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NAM BEST DEPICTS THE TWO EASTERLY WAVES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IN THE EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS QUITE
POTENT...WITH A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
QUICKLY WEST FROM MIDDLETON ISLAND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. OTHERWISE...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD GRASP OVER THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC WAS USED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE BAGGY UPPER LOW WITH MANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND IT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE WEST OVER THE ISLAND AND ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY TODAY. A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE IS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING OVER THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES. ANOTHER SHARP DISTURBANCE
IS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND IS HEADED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE BERING SEA...AND AS THE HIGH
MOVES NORTH AND CUTS OFF OVER FAR NORTHEAST RUSSIA FRIDAY BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

SNOW AND RAIN...MAINLY IN SHOWERS...WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF REGION TODAY AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE BAGGY UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE AFFECTS OF THIS WAVE AS THIS ONE WILL MOVE
STRAIGHT WEST OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF KENAI
TOWARDS KACHEMAK BAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING WRUNG OUT
OVER THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES.

SOUTHWEST...

MOSTLY DRY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OVER BRISTOL BAY
LATER THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF
REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY TO CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT. ANY DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH
WILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL ONLY PRODUCE
SOME NUISANCE HIGH CLOUDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

BROAD EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
CUT OFF OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE LOW WILL FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...BUT WILL ROTATE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THERE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE REX BLOCK OVER THE BERING SEA APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST OVER
CENTRAL RUSSIA. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC
OCEAN INTO THE BERING SEA...AND WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY PERIOD THIS WEEKEND GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ONE OF MORE AND MORE CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC APR 11