Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

027 
FZAK51 PAFC 101219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING AND IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD. THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE INCREASE FOR AREAS
UNDERNEATH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEA LEVEL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING WHILE TEMPERATURES AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE TO FREEZING OR ABOVE. THUS...
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE STRENGTHENING. LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENED JUST ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE MOST
OF THE DENSE FOG IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WEB CAMS SHOW FOG RE-FORMING AND EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH ESTIMATED SPEEDS OF 130 TO 150 KT IS POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS JET IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. AT THE SURFACE...A
NEARLY STATIONARY GALE FORCE FRONT IS POSITIONED BENEATH THE
UPPER JET. THE CLOSEST LOW TO THE FORECAST AREA IS WEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. NO OTHER STORMS POSE A SHORT-TERM THREAT TO
THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH TRACK OF LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE 12Z
ECMWF POSITION WHICH IS CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH TO NORTHWEST ALASKA WHICH MEANS
THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE YUKON WILL BE EARLIER. WILL
MODIFY FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND/EASTERN BERING...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO FAR NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ARCTIC AIR OVER NORTHERN CANADA TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED
UP TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. MEANWHILE...AN EXTREMELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA TO MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE YUKON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND
1060 MB. WHILE PRESSURES RISE INLAND THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CAUSE PRESSURE TO FALL.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A WIND EVENT
FOR THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
AND VALDEZ. AT THIS POINT COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WARNING LEVEL WINDS...SO EXPECT STRONG WINDS
IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE MAINLAND. WHEN THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS...THE GALE FORCE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD. ONE MORE LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KICK UP THE WINDS.
AFTER THAT LOWS MOVES THROUGH THE STORM TRACK WILL BE SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES WILL TRACK FROM THE YUKON DOWN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER NORTH AND CREATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE BERING SEA. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES...
WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS AND DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PRECIP FORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OR WHETHER IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.
BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...TRACK OF MAJOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INFLUENCE
OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH MEANS MAINLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172 176.
         GALE WARNING...127 155 170 171 175 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11