Small Craft Advisory 243, NWS Anchorage, AK

098 
FZAK51 PAFC 022301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 966 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES EAST TO 285 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT EXCEPT 15 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF AN
INTENSIFYING LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IN TURN IS
FORCING DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FIRST OF THESE IS CROSSING KODIAK ISLAND
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
OBSERVING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THERE IS REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. VERY LIGHT SNOW
HAS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND
THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH APPEAR MORE
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA WHERE SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY PARTLY SUNNY. SO EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INLAND. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FOLLOWING 6 TO 8 HOURS BEHIND THE FIRST ONE
AND APPEARS TO BE OF SIMILAR STRENGTH...SO THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER WEST A COUPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXITING ASIA AND MOVING
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF ALASKA. THE FIRST ONE JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA IS FAIRLY WEAK.
THE SECOND SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST HAS UPPER JET SUPPORT
AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE COME
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND OVER TO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER ON THIS. WILL UPDATE FORECASTS USING THE GFS.
SIMILARLY...ECMWF/GFS ARE MUCH CLOSER IN HANDLING OF LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO WILL TREND HEAVILY
TOWARD THE GFS ON THIS AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS TWO UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF PACIFIC
LOW WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND SO DON'T EXPECT A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
BEHIND SECOND TROUGH. THE PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER JET MOVES ON BY LEAVING
THE LOW TO CUT-OFF AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER WAVE
PATTERN. THIS MEANS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GULF AND THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY. STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN
THE USUAL SPOTS AND ENSURE THAT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS. THE STORM WILL
EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OR NO BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE BERING
SEA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM PACIFIC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS ALL
SNOW BUT MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING
AND WARMING. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BLIZZARD AS THE SNOW
ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. PLAN
TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST JUST AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE EAST...SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PACIFIC LOW THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING DIGS SOUTH OF THE LOW FEEDING
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS BACK EDGE WILL LINE
UP. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF THE
PRIBILOFS SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM IN THE UNALASKA AREA TO
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SO FOR THE TIME BEING WON'T ISSUE
ANYTHING BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS PUBLIC FORECAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING ASIA
WILL MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...AFTER
THE STORM WHICH MOVES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK EXITS
EXPECT ANOTHER MAJOR STORM TO TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS
THE BERING SEA TO MAINLAND ALASKA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 155 170 171 172.
         GALE WARNING...125 140 160 165 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 11