Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

624 
FZAK51 PAFC 091522 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
620 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

UPDATED ZONES 129 AND 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
620 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
620 AM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

157 
FZAK51 PAFC 100018
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE.
ARCTIC AIR FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
TUESDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WINDS.
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.  
$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

027 
FZAK51 PAFC 101219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKST SAT JAN 8 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND MAINLAND ALASKA AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT
AHEAD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM RUSSIA TO THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS
OF FOG...MOST NOTABLY IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA WHERE DENSE FOG HAS
SETTLED IN. WARMER AIR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ALASKA.
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE STEEP INVERSIONS AT KING SALMON AND MCGRATH
ON THEIR 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AT
MOUNTAIN LEVEL ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS WITH STORMS TRACKING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
SUPPORTED BY A 130KT+ SOUTHERLY JET. ONE STORM FORCE LOW IS EXITING
OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS A
CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MAXIMUM GALE FORCE
LEVELS BETWEEN SYSTEMS DUE THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE MULTIPLE LOWS
OUT WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
POSITIONS OUT WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES EVOLVE MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH SYSTEMS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WHICH AFFECTS THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST ON THIS UNTIL
MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED CENTER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN STRENGTHEN
AS IT TRACKS TO NORTHERN ALASKA LATE SUNDAY. A THE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT A VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE WILL BE FORCED TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TURN AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. MORE IMPORTANTLY THAN THE WAVE ITSELF IS
A NORTHERLY JET STREAK BEHIND IT WHICH WILL KICK UP WINDS A BIT
IN THE THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ REGION. UNLIKE MOST OF THESE SCENARIOS...
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT AHEAD
OF IT. THEREFORE...WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY USUALLY
ARE WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IS INVOLVED. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH WARMING DO TO
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUAL WARMING OF
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT SEA LEVEL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET UP WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT STEEP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION MEANS FOG WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND
STRENGTHENS IT WILL PUSH THE STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWS (REFERENCED
IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION ABOVE) WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND
WEST...BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MAY SEE WARNING LEVEL
WINDS AS LOW PASSES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS BORDERLINE
AND ANY WARNING LEVEL GUSTS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF...SO WILL NOT ISSUE
A WARNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY
TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH. THE STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP MAINLAND
ALASKA DRY. THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR
TO SURGE WESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST CANADA AND ACROSS THE MAINLAND...
SETTING UP LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO SOUTH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172.
         GALE WARNING...127 155 170 171 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11