Small Craft Advisory 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

505 
FZAK51 PAFC 241103
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 996 MB LATE TONIGHT THEN TO 200 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
SUCKLING AT 992 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURES.  WEAK LOW IN NW GULF DISSIPATES THU EVENING. LOW JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS PROGED BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS A FEW MB DEEPER...MINIMAL IMPACT ON
LAND AREAS. NEXT SYSTEM WHICH STARTS TO IMPACT WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU
NIGHT IS PROGED IN THE 980 MB RANGE AND SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...EASTWARD ALONG 51N INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
SAT MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT PRESENT SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
GENERATING SOME WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. IN
THE WEST A LOW BETWEEN ST. MATTHEW AND ST. PAUL ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
OVER NIGHT.  CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.
WEAK LOW IN NW GULF SLOWLY DISSIPATES THU AS IT MOVES NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS...MAIN IMPACT IS KODIAK ISLAND AND COASTAL ZONES.  MAIN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IS IN JET WHICH IS ZONALLY ORIENTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND IS PROGED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HENCE STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH THU. SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL ALSO PRODUCE RAIN
ANS SOME SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT FOR E. AL AND AK PEN. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND ALEUTIAN SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN AL
ZONES THU LATE MORNING AND SHOULD GENERATE SOME MODERATE TO STRONG E
WINDS IN CENTRAL AL BY THU AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THU...LOOKS AS IF
CLEARING ON FRI WITH GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHCENTRAL...MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRI WITH SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. LOOKING AS SYSTEMS ARE WELL TO SOUTH
ON THE WEEKEND THAT SAT AND SUN MIGHT BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS NOTED ABOVE MAIN ENERGY IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE
STATE. WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF WIND AND RAIN FOR AL CHAIN AS SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 11