Small Craft Advisory 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

543 
FZAK51 PAFC 232316
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES THURSDAY EVENING OVER
THE BARREN ISLANDS AT 999 MB AND THEN DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 23 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

505 
FZAK51 PAFC 241103
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 996 MB LATE TONIGHT THEN TO 200 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
SUCKLING AT 992 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
(60HR) FOR SUCH A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN IN THE EAST AND PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OUT WEST. THE MAIN MODEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH THE LOW
UNDERCUTTING THE ALEUTIANS THU NIGHT/FRI. THE NAM/GFS WHICH HAVE HAD
THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ON THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...ALTHOUGH NOT
PERFECT...SEEM THE MOST REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG WESTERLY
NORTH PACIFIC JET. THE NAM WILL GENERALLY BE USED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE EC HAVE BEEN UBER INCONSISTENT.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO OVER THE NE
PACIFIC (INCLUDING THE WESTERN GULF). THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA BY
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THE NORTH PACIFIC WESTERLY JET ALONG
50N WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.

.SURFACE.
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW CENTERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND THROUGH THIS
WEEK. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE MAINLAND
RIDGE AND GULF TROUGH. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN
ARM THROUGH WED. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL DIMINISH WED EVENING. A
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
(SNOW OR MIX) OVER THE GULF AND SE EXPOSURES.

EASTERN BERING SEA/SW ALASKA...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN AND THE WEATHER SHOWERY.

ALEUTIANS...A COUPLE OF LOW CENTERS WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE CENTERS...
MOVING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI...MAY BRING SOUTH MIN
GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 11