Small Craft Advisory 197, NWS Anchorage, AK

187 
FZAK51 PAFC 142332
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151600-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW 165 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. A 984 MB LOW 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE TO 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY 
WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-151600-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-151600-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151600-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151600-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151600-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151600-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-151600-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151600-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151600-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED AT UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH A HIGH
OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE GULF AND
ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC...WITH CENTERS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MERGES WITH THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE LOW AND THE COMBINED
FEATURE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW DEEPENS A BIT AS
IT APPROACHES PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...BRINGING WITH IT AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT
POKES NORTH. NOT ONLY DOES THIS PROVIDE PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF
COAST...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
MEANWHILE A LOW SOUTHWEST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TUE AND THEN WEAKENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS FEATURE DISSIPATES AND A SECOND
DEEPER LOW THEN FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY THU. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS FOR
CONSISTENCY THROUGH FRI...AND THEN BLENDS TOWARD THE EC AND HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE FIRST LOW
FROM SOUTHWEST OF KAMCHATKA ARRIVES TUE. THIS WILL BRING SNOW AND
GALES TO THE CHAIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ON WED SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
WITH GALES AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THU...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
BERING AND CURVES BACK TO THE AKPEN. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ON
FRI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE BERING FOR
THE WEEKEND.

FOR SW AK...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE SECOND LOW AND
FRONT BRING GALES AND RAIN AND SNOW THU AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO SAT BEFORE IMPROVING.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INLAND
PERSIST THROUGH WED...ALTHOUGH THE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL BRING
SNOW TO THAT AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
GULF LOW WILL SEND SURGES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS THU NIGHT. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN
AND SNOW AND WIND TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT LINGER OVER SW AK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INLAND AREAS SE OF
THE AK RANGE WHILE COASTAL SECTIONS RECEIVE RAIN AND SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 11