Small Craft Advisory 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. CONCERNING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
IN AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING FASTER
AND BEING WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE EMBEDDED LOWS BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS SO TRENDING TOWARDS
THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE BERING SEA AND HAS STARTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
HIGH CONTINUES TO CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM
THE NORTH IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW CONTINUE TO CAUSE STRONG WINDS
AT THE SURFACE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF ALASKA
FROM EAST TO WEST AND THEN CURVES TO THE SOUTH AS IT TRAVELS OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE LARGE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF HAS A FAIRLY STRONG EMBEDDED LOW
BETWEEN MIDDLETON ISLAND AND KODIAK ISLAND THAT IS MOVING TOWARD
KODIAK. THIS WILL BE A KEY FEATURE FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF AND KODIAK
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK SHOULD BRING SNOW
TO THE ISLAND. AMOUNTS ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH AROUND 2 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE...BUT SOME CONCERN THAT THEY COULD BE MORE
IF A NUMBER OF SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH AFTER THE MAIN LOW TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP KODIAK IN SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THESE
LOWS. THE ONLY OTHER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT RISK OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONT OUT THERE.
WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN SOME OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF
COAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND BUT IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY FROM NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE
BERING BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 138 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DK/EZ MAR 11