Small Craft Advisory 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

376 
FZAK51 PAFC 032006 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

UPDATED AREA 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. A 998 MB 
LOW 280 NM NORTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 
140 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AT 982 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1100 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF 
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

849 
FZAK51 PAFC 040051
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE FRI. A 993
MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 987 MB FRI MORNING AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A
977 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 KT
THIS EVENING.  SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUN ARE DOING WELL AND HAVE
LOCKED ON BY ALL THE MAIN FEATURES. THERE IS THE TYPICAL PROBLEMS IN
DEALING WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES IN THE COMPLEX LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
BERING SEA CREATING AN UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WITH A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS GRADIENT IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE JET WHICH IS MOVING
SOUTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SPEEDS
PRIMARILY LESS THAN 75 KNOTS. THERE IS LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE REGION KEEPING THESE LEVELS VOID OF MOST CLOUD COVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND A LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA IS ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RETURNS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WINDS UP TO 75 MPH.
WINDS IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND THOMPSON PASS HAVE COME UP AND THIS AREA
MIGHT ALSO NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALSO SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE A GOOD INVERSION CAN
DEVELOP WHICH WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF THE INCREASING WINDS UNTIL
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOWS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GULF WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY KODIAK...WHILE A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111.
MARINE...GALE 130 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 11