Small Craft Advisory 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT FEB 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MODERATE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. STRONG NORTH TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF
CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS PRODUCING
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MOVEMENT AND AND
STRENGTH OF ALL THE MAJOR SYSTEMS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM
MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF WHILE THE
GFS WAS USED ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER THROUGH OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WILL BE PUSHED INTO
WESTERN CANADA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES INTO
WESTERN ALASKA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
ALASKA MONDAY. A LOW EAST OF HOKKAIDO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LIE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE BERING SEA MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATE4D
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUES TO BLOW
OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA...SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE BERING
SEA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY. RAIN AND
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY AND
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 175 178 185
FIRE WEATHER...

NM FEB 11