Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

566 
FZAK51 PAFC 090339 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

UPDATE 120 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING. A 992 MB
LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD WED NIGHT AT 1007 MB AND
DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
640 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 55
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...SEAS 22 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE
WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 22 FT
EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

706 
FZAK51 PAFC 091231
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW FORMS 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON 
AND MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT AT 985 MB.

$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 
S 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
BY NOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
TOWARD KAMICHAK BAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN 
SHIFTING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

801 
FZAK51 PAFC 100018
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW FORMS 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU AFTERNOON
AND MOVES TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON AT 982 MB.
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...N 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. NAM IS HAVING A LITTLE MORE TROUBLE WITH
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA. OVERALL THE MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT THE DEVELOPING PATTERN QUITE WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA EXTENDS NORTHWARD AND OVER THE AL-CAN BORDER AND A
LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS DUG DOWN THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE AND OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY.
A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK IS MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A STACKED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. A RESULTANT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WE ARE
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOWFALL UP THE SUSITNA VALLEY ENOUGH FOR AN
ADVISORY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE CONTINUING NEAR 45 TO 60 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE
TYPICAL PRECIPITATION FREE AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI...MAT VALLEY
AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. COMBINED WITH HIGH WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION...PORTAGE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
THE EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY CHANGING THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ISOLATED. ANOTHER LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF LATE THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION VALDEZ
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE BARREN ISLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STACKED LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING STRONG GAP WINDS NEAR THE LOW THIS EVENING BEFORE IT
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TOMORROW AND INTO EASTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TO END OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING FRIDAY AND BRINGS A CHANCE TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY BRINGING SHOWERS ALL
THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHWEST BERING SEA
BRINGING MODERATE WINDS AND RAIN TO SHEMYA. THE FRONT WILL WORK TO
THE CENTRAL BERING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HIT HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEAKEN. ANOTHER LOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THURSDAY
AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND RIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
BERING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE CLOSER TO THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A MORE STABLE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE LOW IN THE GULF AND A LARGE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. A SKINNY RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE BREAK THROUGH OF
THE RIDGE BY A FRONT BY TUESDAY. THE MORE STABLE SOLUTION WOULD
SUGGEST THE RIDGE HOLDING AND WEAKENING THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBOUND. SO...MORE OF A WET PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WESTERLY GAP
WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE LATER WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK RIGHT
NOW. FOR THE SOUTHWEST...DRY WITH AKPEN GAP WINDS. FOR THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING...STRONG WINDS AND LOTS OF PRECIPITATION AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING. DRY AND COOL FOR THE MOST
PART OF THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 132 140 150 170 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11