Small Craft Advisory 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
FZAK51 PAFC 050538 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
840 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT MORNING. A 1008
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY SAT EVENING AND MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF
WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
840 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

423 
FZAK51 PAFC 051215
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT MORNING 
AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT. 
A 1010 LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK SAT EVENING AND MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W OF CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 35 KT. E OF CAPE CLEARE...
NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 8 FT 
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 5 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP STARTING AT 06Z TUE BUT GREATEST IMPACT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO 160W WESTWARD. OPERATIONAL GFS STAYS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
MEAN BUT ECMWF HAS A MUCH FASTER MOVING BUT MORE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING LOW. HPC SOLUTION TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES AND IS ALSO THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED PACKAGE.
GFS PREFERRED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...HPC SOLUTION PREFERRED IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY TODAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. RIDGE THEN
HOLDS THROUGH 84 HOURS. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE BERING
SEA AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 46N
171W THEN...MOVES TO NEAR 56N 169W SUNDAY MORNING...AND DISSIPATES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A 982 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR 46N 175W WILL WEAKEN
TO 1006 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RAPIDLY OCCLUDE AS IT SWINGS
NORTHWARD...REACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA BY
SAT EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING
FROM UNALASKA TO KING SALMON AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA
HOLDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY RETRACTS INTO WESTERN CANADA
BY TUE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW
SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. FOG SHOULD NOT REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS GRADIENT ALONG NORTH
GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL HAVE TIGHTENED BY THAT TIME AND
INDUCED MIXING.
A SMALL 1008 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT. FEW LOCALLY INTENSE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
BUT COULD NICK SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST....
NEXT BIG NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED BE NEAR 40N 165W SUN NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. STORM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION
TO KODIAK ISLAND...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180
              352 411 413 414
         HEAVY SPRAY 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB FEB 11