Hurricane Force Wind Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

107 
FZAK62 PAFC 131256
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 948 MB LOW NEAR 53N 175W WILL WEAKEN TO 951 MB NEAR 55N 176W
TUE AFTERNOON THEN THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 959 MB NEAR 55N
176E WED MORNING. A DEVELOPING 981 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 941 MB NEAR 52N 163W WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
56N AND EAST OF 177E...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO NE 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 177E. 
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF 56N...W WIND 55 KT. NORTH OF 56N... NORTHEAST
WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF 56N.
.WED...SOUTH OF 56N...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF 56N...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 65 KT. SEAS 30 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 65 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 32 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW TO SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE TO NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 60 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT WEST OF 166W. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

682 
FZAK62 PAFC 140008
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 954 MB LOW NEAR 55N 177W WILL WEAKEN TO 964 MB AND MOVE TO 56N 171E
WED AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THU. A 981 MB LOW NEAR 42N 174W WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 948 MB AND MOVE TO 53N 166W WED EVENING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE
TO 56N 166W THU AFTERNOON AT 956 MB. 
$$

PKZ411-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. HOWEVER...EVEN AS IT WEAKENS IT CONTINUES TO
IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. STEADY SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND KENAI
PENINSULA WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT IMPORTANT LOW IS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF
ADAK AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO THE 951 MB. AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE LOW
WILL TRACK. THIS RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN
DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON THE
PROPAGATION OF A FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE WEST GULF OF ALASKA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STEADY SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW
DISSIPATES...DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. AS A
RESULT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A FRONT
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES HAVE SUPPORTED A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS NEAR BETHEL AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUSTY
WINDS AND RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN BERING
COAST.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE BERING SEA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.  A
954 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ADAK BY THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS
WILL REACH MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE WINDS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187
         BLIZZARD WARNING...131
         HIGH WIND WATCH...181 185 195

MARINE...HURRICANE...172 175
         STORM...120 155 165 170 171 179 180 185
         GALE...130 132 140 141 150 160 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN DEC 11