High Wind Watch 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

626 
WWAK72 PAFC 121348
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

AKZ187-130300-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0038.111213T0600Z-111214T0100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0051.111212T2100Z-111214T0100Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
448 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM AKST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 MPH WITH
  GUSTS TO 80 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY
  OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE ONCE
  MORE TO 55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL PEAK
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
  SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...OBJECTS CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. POWER
  OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ181-130300-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0039.111213T0900Z-111213T2100Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
448 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE
  GUSTS TO 75 MPH. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL PEAK AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN END FROM
  WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 

* IMPACTS...OBJECTS CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. POWER
  OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

AKZ185-130300-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0039.111213T0100Z-111213T0900Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
448 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND...45 TO 65 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 85 MPH. 

* TIMING...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
  WEST...THEN PEAK AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
  THE AREA THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...OBJECTS CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. POWER
  OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

AKZ195-130300-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0039.111213T0600Z-111213T1500Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
448 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. 

* WIND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...MID EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...OBJECTS CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. POWER
  OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN IMPRESSIVE 960 MB LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SIBERIA
CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALTHOUGH IT HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHES ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.  THIS
FRONT HAS ALSO CREATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH GAPS AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN
TOPS...WITH 90 MPH REPORTED AT GLEN ALPS AND 80 MPH THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM LAST NIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA...A NEW LOW IS FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND WILL
REACH THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MUCH QUIETER ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE NORTH
BERING LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. STEADIER SNOW IS
FALLING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHERE A DEVELOPING LOW IS
SKIRTING THE REGION ON ITS WAY TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES...EVEN IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE 965 MB LOW ARRIVING JUST EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON THE
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS. IN EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY...THE GFS INDICATES GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS SNOW
AMOUNTS MUCH LOWER. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TODAY'S FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL GAPS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.  IT IS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING STEADY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
MEANWHILE...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STEADY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH GAPS AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A STRONG COASTAL JET
WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST OF THE EAST GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO CONTAINS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
THE SUSITNA VALLEY...VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...STEADY SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS EAST OF DILLINGHAM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIETER ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION
TODAY AS THE LOW NEAR SIBERIA MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY...AS THE NEXT POTENT FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE BERING...WITH LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPEXTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG GUSTS ONLY
OCCURRING AT SHEMYA.  HOWEVER...THE NEXT IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL
REACH ADAK ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 135...HIGH WIND WARNING 101
         BLIZZARD WARNING 131

MARINE...HURRICANE...120
         STORM...125 130 132 150 170 172 175
         GALE...129 138 140 155 171 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

AKZ101-120300-

...A STRONG STORM BRINGING A MIX OF CONDITIONS TO THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...

A VERY STRONG LOW HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED TODAY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND IS HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL VARY GREATLY
FROM EAGLE RIVER TO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN.

CURRENTLY EAGLE RIVER TO NEAR DOWNTOWN ANCHORAGE IS REPORTING RAIN
WHILE THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF TOWN IS SEEING HEAVY SNOW. HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED ALONG THE HILLSIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND IS EXPECTED TO END THE
PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.