High Wind Watch 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

352 
WWAK72 PAFC 061246
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

AKZ181-070200-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0019.110406T2100Z-110407T0800Z/
/X.EXB.PAFC.HW.W.0025.110406T2200Z-110407T0800Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
446 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
AKDT TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL BRING DANGEROUS WINDS TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 50
MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST 40 TO 55 MPH
AND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-070200-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0025.110406T1700Z-110407T2100Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
446 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 PM AKDT THURSDAY. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL BRING DANGEROUS WINDS TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 45 TO 60 MPH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST 40 TO 50 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-070200-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110407T1500Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
446 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THURSDAY. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DANGEROUS WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND GUSTS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 MPH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE  WEST BERING AND
CURVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  A
SECOND MORE POTENT 165 KT JET LIES ALONG THE 40 N PARALLEL SOUTH OF
SHEMYA. THIS JET LIES ALONG THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH AND LIES JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A
PIVOTAL ROLE IN BOTH SUPPORTING THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS SURFACE
LOW AND TRANSPORTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF.  FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD. A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
LIES BENEATH THIS FEATURE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING GREATER
DISCREPANCY IN CAPTURING THE MANIFESTATION OF A LOW IN THE GULF BY
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE MORNING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
DOWNSLOPING HAS FINALLY SUBSIDED THIS MORNING ACROSS ANCHORAGE THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE.
MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  THE FORCING OF THIS SNOW HAS BEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA...MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A MUCH WEAKER WAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH.  STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AS A SYSTEM WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE APPROACHES THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST...
A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. ITS SLOW PROGRESSION HAS BROUGHT LIGHT BUT STEADY
SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ALL NIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW THAT HAVE RESULTED IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST. A MUCH MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS AND STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WIND ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THE CURRENT TRACK WILL BRING THE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE LION'S SHARE OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LOOK TO BEAR THE BRUNT...AND HIGH WIND
WATCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS. A LONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL LOW ALSO BRINGS THE
THREAT COASTAL FLOODING TO BRISTOL BAY AND PERHAPS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION AS A SERIES OF LOWS PROGRESS ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO
THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...185 187
MARINE...STORM...155 165 170 172 175 176 180 185
         GALE...130 132 150 160 171 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN APR 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

AKZ101-111-060000-

...SNOW FALLING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

SNOW DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
AS OF 1030 AM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS ANCHORAGE. A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING
RIGHT OVER ANCHORAGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP OR EVEN STOP FOR
A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF
1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH THESE SHOWERS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR AT
HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
230 PM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

AKZ155-161-062100-

...DANGEROUS ICE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA
WEST COAST...

...POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...

A VERY STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS WEEK WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEA ICE CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST.

IN BRISTOL BAY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE ICE TO PUSH ONTO BEACHES
FROM DILLINGHAM TO TOGIAK. BEACH EROSION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM
NAKNEK TO TOGIAK BAY.

FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO TOKSOOK BAY ICE SHOVES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MORE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA ALONG WITH DETAILED GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/ICEGRAPHICS.PHP.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS ICE CONDITIONS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO AROUND 35 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN MOVE THESE VERY HIGH
WAVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE PRESENCE OF SEA ICE DOES HELP TO DAMPEN THESE WAVES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR STORM SURGE DURING HIGH TIDES
TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

THIS SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED AT 1 PM WEDNESDAY.