Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD CONSENSUS ON FIRST 60 HOURS
OF FORECAST. MAIN FEATURE IS ELONGATED LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
STRETCHING NW TOWARD KODIAK. BY LATE WED MORNING MODELS INDICATE MAIN
CENTER JUST EAST OF KODIAK AT 980 MB...THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES
THU AS IT MOVES TO THE N-NE.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
BERING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN FEATURE IS EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AND
ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF 157W
THROUGH FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG. WEAK LOW SOUTH OF ATKA WED WILL SPREAD
FRONT INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT. NORTH WINDS THROUGH THU OVER
BRISTOL BAY.

SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY CLEAR AND SUNNY WEST OF 157W. FOG POSSIBLE IN
COASTAL AREAS.

SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN ALONG THE COAST CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
INLAND. CONSIDERABLE DOWNSLOPING TO LEE OF MTNS WITH SE FLOW IN MID
LEVELS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING TAKING A NE TRACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF SUN MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF CURRENT
STORM...WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM EASTERN ALEUTIANS UP TO KODIAK. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS IN SAME AREAS.  LOOK AS
NE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS 173W.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 180 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 11