Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER PWS.  NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 50N 155W IS
PROGED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF AK MON AND
DISSIPATE...LITTLE IMPACT ON AOR.  ALL MODELS CARRY NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MON INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING. GFS AND ECWMF HINTING AT A ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW WITH A NORTHERN CENTER JUST EAST OF KODIAK TUE NIGHT.
NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON POSITION BUT ABOUT 5 MB
DEEPER...HENCE DETAILS OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
OBSCURE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...JET LIES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
HENCE STORM DEVELOPED HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THIS AREA. WEAK LOW OVER

NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES OVER PWS AND INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING.  PRECIP CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTOR AS THIS
AREA HAS MAINTAINED MID-LEVEL SUPPORT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...FRONT FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON
NIGHT. EXPECT SOME MODERATE AND POSSIBLY STRONG EAST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRECIP COULD BE MIXED PHASE.  LITTLE IMPACT NORTH OF 55N.

SOUTHWEST...BENIGN PATTERN SO LOCAL AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY OR CLEAR.  CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ZONE
161 TUE AFTERNOON REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF PRECIP IS CONFINED TO AK PEN
OR MORE WIDESPREAD.

SOUTHCENTRAL...LOOKS AS TONIGHT AND MON SHOULD BE BE GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH EXCEPTION OF COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER MON NIGHT BUT WEAK SURFACE FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. NEXT FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OVER KODIAK TUE MORNING AND OVER COOK INLET TUE EVENING. WOULD
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS BY WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING THAT GULF LOW LINGERS THROUGH
FRI MORNING SO HAVE TO CONSIDER CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THU NIGHT.  MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE BERING AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING...HENCE GENERALLY CLEAR AND SUNNY
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A LOW FROM SIBERIA IS PROGED TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING FRI BUT IMPACTS OVER WESTERN AK PROBABLY MINIMAL
AS HIGH OVER EASTERN BERING WOULD APPEAR TO LIMIT ITS EASTWARD TRACK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 11