Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 91, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE IS VERY GOOD. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE MORE ACCURATE STRONG
WINDS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. OUT WEST WE ARE GOING WITH THE EC AS IT
HAS THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS ALSO DOING BETTER PICKING UP THE MINOR
SHORTWAVES WITH THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE BERING
SEA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA. RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
KEEPING THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
MINIMAL MOISTURE. THE LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK TO THE WEST
BRINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE TO THE GULF. THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
FRONT TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS MOVING OFF INTO RUSSIA AND THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL MOVE WEST AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION WITH AREAS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BECOME SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY. INTERIOR SECTIONS OVER THE SUSITNA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE WILL WARM A BIT
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF THE STATE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY WITH A
FEW AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA.

.BERING SEA...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO NEAR AMCHITKA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW, RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL DRIFT BACK OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH
OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
ELONGATE EASTWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE GULF MONDAY THEN DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 140 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM/DK MAR 11