Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH WE PREFER
THE NAM OR GFS IN THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SIBERIA HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE THE BERING SEA
LOW HAS WEAKENED. A UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
.AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO BRISTOL BAY. A WEATHER FRONT
LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST BERING, BRISTOL BAY,
KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL
BECOME RAIN THIS EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BACK TO SHOWERS TUESDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN BECOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE A LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN
ARM THROUGH TONIGHT AND DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROUGH OVER BRISTOL
BAY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR BETHEL TUESDAY AND WEAKEN OVER
KOTZEBUE SOUND WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATIONS WILL REMAIN SNOW ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WITH A FEW
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
DELTA COAST HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS AND COOLER AIR MOVES BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.BERING SEA...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NEW LOW FORMING
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME
CLEARING AND WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD SIBERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN, SNOW
AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 AND 125
         BLIZZARD WARNING 155
MARINE...GALE 125 130 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 175 176 179
         STORM 120 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM JAN 11