Gale Warning 916, NWS Anchorage, AK

307 
FZAK62 PAFC 070034
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 51N 178E WILL MOVE TO 55N 175W WED MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A 974 MB LOW NEAR 56N 174W WILL MOVE TO 63N 173W AT 982 MB
THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56N. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF 176W...SE 50 KT GUSTING TO 70 KT BECOMING S 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF 176W...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 TO
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW TO NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF 176W...S WIND 50 KT GUSTING TO 70 KT DIMINISHING
TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF 176W...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT BECOMING S 30 TO
40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY HAS THE RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING
SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING SOUTHWEST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SHORT WAVES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY INTO MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE MIDWEEK.

AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA WITH A MODERATE LARGE IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL
DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW TOMORROW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY MIDWEEK AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE BY
THEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE RESOLVING OF THE LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT
LOW IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS TAKING IT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS HAS THE TRIPLE POINT ROTATING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
THE DISSIPATING PARENT LOW WHICH WILL NOT PUSH THE WARM AIR AS FAR
NORTH WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM OF GFS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO THAT WAS USED IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW
IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER
IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MID WEEK. AS OF NOW THE NAM PROBABLY HAS THE
BEST HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IN THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA HAS PROMPTED THE BLIZZARD WATCH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION ABOUT
WHETHER THIS WILL FULLY MATERIALIZE IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES MAY  GET WARM ENOUGH
TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN TOMORROW. IF NOT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BRING THE CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE MATSU AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT EXPECTED TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS MORE WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF REGION AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS IS NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THE PUSH THIS
WEEKEND AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE WARMEST AIR EASTWARD AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ANCHORAGE AREA COULD SEE A MIXED BAG
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE
PRECIPITATION CUT OFF BY DOWNSLOPING WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY.
THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH MATANUSKA VALLEY IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
RAIN SNOW LINE SO THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE NORM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A STORM TRACK SIMILAR TO THE LAST
WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE UP INTO THE BERING STRETCHING FRONTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN FRONTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
MARINE...GALE 120 150 160 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 155 170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11