Gale Warning 900, NWS Anchorage, AK

084 
FZAK52 PAFC 270023
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 80 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT
989 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 979 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVES TO 80 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY.

$$

PKZ150-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS
20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 40 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-271500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS DRAPED OVER MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE TWO MAIN CENTERS LEFT...ONE
OVER THE AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
STRETCHING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER LOW
A TROUGH AXIS SITS FROM THE GULF WELL INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER WEST...A SEASONABLE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN ACTIVE JET FEEDS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS UP
THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN OVER THE CHUKCHI PENINSULA A
RIDGE AXIS LIES BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINANT UPPER LOWS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ONE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ANOTHER ENCROACHING ON THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW PREVAILS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST
OF THE MAINLAND. A LARGE SURFACE LOW SITS JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE BERING
TURNING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PATTERN GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SIMILARLY THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY. THE KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE BERING COMBINING WITH THE MAINLAND UPPER LOW
TO FORM A DOUBLE BARRELED BROAD TROUGH. THE JET STREAM WILL LIE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WITH A MULTITUDE OF LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES FROM
THE AKPEN BACK THROUGH EAST ASIA. HOW THESE WAVES PROPAGATE AND
AMPLIFY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE
SURFACE FIELDS ARE ALSO HANDLED VERY SIMILARLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT DIFFERENCES ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE CURRENT BERING SEA
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE ALEUTIANS A TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL FORM AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AKPEN EARLY SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A BROAD SURFACE LOW...SOME MULTI-CENTERED...FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
THE EASTERN GULF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS...NAM/SREF...SHOW A
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW THAT STAYS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...MOVING
INTO THE GULF. THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY REACH THAT SOLUTION ONLY
AFTER REFORMING THE LOW CENTER AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AKPEN. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS THE OUTLIER OF THE PACKAGE WITH A MUCH DEEPER LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK ONTO THE MAINLAND. GFS IS FAVORED
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING. THE DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A NEW TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW FIRST FOR
KODIAK ISLAND THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF ARE ALSO
A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING
FRONT BRINGS SNOW TO THE AKPEN ON SUNDAY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CHAIN
TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE COLD PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS LOOKS TO BE CHANGING THIS
WEEK. THE TWO CURRENT UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH MANY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
STORM TRACKS WILL CHANGE TO A MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND ONTO THE MAINLAND USHERING IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
MARINE...GALE 120 121 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
180 185 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11