Gale Warning 859, NWS Anchorage, AK

989 
FZAK52 PAFC 132352
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR ST MATHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TOKSOOK
BAY SUN NIGHT WITH AT 1003 MB. A 1004 MB LOW 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 1005 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL MON AFTERNOON AT
1008 MB. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NELSON LAGOON LATE MON NIGHT AND TO
105 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON AFTERNOON AT 1000 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY ZONAL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS A LARGE
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SIBERIA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND UP TO THE BEAUFORT SEA. TWO MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERS
DOMINATE THE TROUGH...ONE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AND ANOTHER
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. BETWEEN THESE TWO LIES WEAK UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND. A STOUT WESTERLY JET OF 165 KNOTS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER MUCH OF ALASKA WITH A 973MB LOW CENTER OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ANOTHER OVER THE PANHANDLE. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE AKPEN AND ALEUTIANS.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DISCREPANCIES ARISE VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HOW THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA PROPAGATES EASTWARD
OVER THE BERING SEA. EVEN WITH THE TIMING ISSUES ALL GUIDANCE MERGES
THIS FEATURE WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. TIMING OF
THE MERGING SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE TIMING ON COLD AIR ADVECTING
SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AT THE SURFACE...THE SAME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING ISSUES THERE
IS AGREEMENT ON A LOW SETTLING INTO THE GULF WITH WIND/COLD AIR FROM
THE NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE ELONGATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUT THE WEEKEND EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...MAT-SU AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE
KILBUCKS AND ALASKAN/ALEUTIAN RANGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE AKPEN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER WARMER WATERS WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING. SOME AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
WILL GET RAIN DURING THE DAY OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AN UPPER LOW
ROTATING INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SIGNALS AN END TO THE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET SAVE FOR
SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CHAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
MAINLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD 155
MARINE...STORM 120 130 351 352 GALE 125 129 132 138 141 HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11